The connection of the Eurasian transport corridors “North-South” and “East-West” could lead to an increase in cargo flow in the macro-region by 40%. This is the conclusion reached by EDB analysts in the report “Eurasian Transport Framework”.
The volume of cargo transportation along three key corridors passing through Central Asia will increase by one and a half times by 2030, to 95 million tons. Container traffic may grow by two-thirds, to 1.7 million TEU (conventional containers), according to EDB experts. Currently, the volume of trade turnover between Central Asian countries and India is three times lower than its potential, according to EDB Chief Economist Evgeny Vinokurov. The bank expects an increase in the volume of such deliveries by $1.9 billion, including $1.6 billion due to exports from India and $0.3 billion from Central Asian countries.
In 2023, deliveries along the three routes of the North-South corridor amounted to 19 million tons of cargo, of which 12.5 million tons were by rail (mostly grain exports). Combining the corridors could reduce the costs of multimodal transportation by 15%, but this would require a reduction in downtime at border points.
The transition to digital technologies will reduce the average transit time along the corridors by four days, while a one-day reduction in delivery time is equivalent to 0.8% of the price of the transported industrial goods with a high degree of processing.
In this case, the average delivery time of goods to India along the North-South corridor will be reduced from 40 to 17 days, and costs will be halved. The corridor can also work as insurance against an increase in the cost of sea freight. Simplification of delivery will also allow transporting goods in one container from the manufacturer to the buyer (currently, transshipment is usually required). – Container transportation is beginning to be used for many types of goods that were previously transported differently – this could be grain or cars (vehicle kits), – notes the head of the Center for Integration Studies of the EDB Alexander Zaboev.
The state of border crossings on the border with China remains a limitation. The increase in the volume of transit from China in 2020-2021 to 3% of the total volume of Chinese trade loaded the Eurasian transport network almost completely – the growth of this share to 10% will require new transportation capacities. The construction of a new border crossing with China, according to the expert, will increase transportation by 1.5 million TEU (70% of deliveries from China are carried out in containers), increasing “containerization” will also speed up transportation – from 500 km to 1 thousand km per day. Recall that Advisor to the President of Russia Igor Levitin, who received the post of Special Representative for International Cooperation in the Field of Transport, will be engaged in the legal support of the construction of transport corridors. Among the priority projects that will be under his supervision, Levitin named the North-South corridor and the Northern Sea Route.
Source: www.logirus.ru